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- DATE: FEB. 22, 1991 13:49 REPORT: 1
- TO: SPL
- FOR:
- CC:
- BUREAU: WASHINGTON
- BY: BRUCE VAN VOORST
- IN:
- SLUG: WAR NARRATIVE
-
- Although this story will most certainly be dominated by
- diplomatic events, herewith a couple of military angles
- worth noting...
-
- The air war continues, but it's increasingly being
- supplemented by growing operations along the border.
- Baghdad Radio may be forgiven for believing that the
- ground war has begun. But the ground operation, as the
- generals tell us at the briefings and on background, will
- be "horrendous," something unparalled in decades. As
- General Neal puts it,"When the ground war begins, they'll
- know the difference."
-
- All the allied forces--including the French and
- British--have stepped up border operations. In
- particular, the U.S. artillery and MLRS (Multiple Launch
- Rocket System) systems are firing at a rapid rate. U.S.
- Apache and Cobra helicopters are also laying down what
- the briefers euphemistically call the "battlefield
- preparation."
-
- This week for the first time the U.S. admitted that
- forces had crossed the border into Kuwait. In fact,
- regular U.S. ground forces are penetrating up to 50km and
- more into Kuwaiti territory. There are also special
- operations forces roaming elsewhere in Kuwait, but except
- for the fact they are doing interdiction operations we
- don't know precisely where.
-
- ---O---
-
- At this writing (1330) there is no sign from the
- battlefield of any change in the Iraqi force routine.
- There's neither sign they will retreat, nor evidence they
- will emerge from the bunkers and begin a real fight. Air
- Force intelligence officers are keeping a particular eye
- on those remaining Iraqi aircraft--an estimated
- 350--technically still available to Saddam Hussein. If
- flown in Kamikazi flights, they could cause temporary
- pain.
-
- If Saddam Hussein decides to withdraw his forces in
- Kuwait, and so announces prior to the noon Saturday
- deadline, first troop movements could begin almost
- immediately. U.S. forces would stay alert to any
- deception or tricks, but so long as the Iraqis wre
- withdrawing they would not be attacked. The Pentagon has
- never clarified just where the 600,000-odd Iraqi troops
- are in the "KTO," Kuwait theater of operations (defined
- as 31 degrees and south).
-
- But all units of the Republican Guard are still in Iraq
- proper. There are an estimated 250,000 troops (checking
- for update) in Kuwait itself. Brigades of these divisions
- could be moving within hours of receiving an order from
- Baghdad (although note that it may well be dark in the
- theater if Saddam waits until just before the deadline).
-
- According to Fitzwater's list of U.S. demands, the
- President insists that Iraq pull out all forces from
- Kuwait City within 48 hours. That's doable.
-
- President Bush also insists tht Iraqi forces complete
- their retreat from Kuwait itself within a week. In order
- to comply with these demands, Iraqi forces will have to
- leave behind some of their heavy equipment. Many of the
- weapons are deeply dug in; many tanks are tucked into
- berms and covered with sandbags. Thus although Bush's
- points don't specifically address the weapons issue, the
- practical effect of the time limit will make it
- impossible for Iraq to withdraw all the equipment. Hence
- this will lead to a further erosion of the Iraqi forces,
- already well underway through the air campaign.
-
- If Bush really means that //all// Iraqi forces must be
- in their positions of August 1st,this would mean a
- further withdrawal within Iraq. Many of the divisions now
- in southern Iraq were not there on that date.
-
- (On the question of noon time where? Cheney said today
- it is east coast time.)
-
- (updating tk.)
-
-